Syria and Fourth Generation War
The situation in Syria seems to be moving in a new and somewhat unexpected direction. An Islamist Fourth Generation entity, Hayat Tharir al Sham (HTS), having taken power in Syria, is moving to transform itself into a normal political party governing a broadly secular state.
Whether this move will prove sustainable is difficult to say. It seems to be driven by HTS’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. How deep his support goes in his own organization is not clear. Many of his fighters are Islamist fanatics who want to turn Syria into another Afghanistan. Will he be able to maintain discipline among them as he heads in a different direction? Or will he end up dead? Time, and probably not much time, will tell.
The degree to which Mr. Al-Sharaa has moved to normalize life in the portions of Syria HTS controls is astonishing. He has kept the state functioning, to the point of meeting with the previous government to transfer power in an orderly fashion and keeping some members of the old cabinet in their positions. He moved quickly from wearing traditional jihadi robes to a military uniform to a business suit. Most importantly, he has assured Syrians who are not Salsfi Sunni Moslems that they will not be oppressed or governed by Sharia and will retain freedom of public worship. His new policies of normalization are attracting support from abroad; diplomatic missions from the EU and the US have arrived in Damascus, met with Mr. al-Sharaa, and left with favorable impressions.
What lies behind this welcome development? One of the most basic, and most ignored, rules of war: the enemy learns. Mr. al_Sharaa fought the Americans in Iraq and spent five years in an American-run POW camp there. Released, he linked up with al Queda, then ISIS. And he watched both of those organizations fail. They failed because they brought misery to the fellow Moselms they ended up ruling. Not wanting HTS to fail the same way, he is doing what is necessary to improve the lives of Syrian people, including the millions who are not Sunni Moselms. He has figured out that if he wants to win at the moral level of war, war’s most powerful level, he has to make life in Syria better, not worse.
The implications of this development, the transformation of a 4GW entity into a normal (if armed) political party, are profound. If it works, other 4GW entities may take the same course. That in turn would strengthen the state system and with it world order. Anything that works in favor of a more orderly world is in the interest of the US and every other state, which in turn means Mr. al-Sharaa and his program of normalization should receive the strong support of every other state. For the most part, that will mean economic assistance to rebuild a badly damaged Syria and get its domestic economy up and running. But HTS faces other armed groups in Syria, including ISIS, which it will have to defeat and disarm if Syria is to become a real state again.
Here, the best help we can give is to stop American and Israeli bombing of Syria. America is bombing ISIS, which on the physical level assists HTS. But Israel is launching massive airstrikes to destroy the equipment of the old Syrian state military. HTS will need that equipment to establish its rule over Syria, which is to say Israel is helping ISIS and other entities that do not want Syria to again become a state. All the bombing, American and Israeli, undermines the legitimacy of the new Syrian government by showing it cannot defend the country.
I expect President Trump to end the American bombing and pull our troops out of Syria, and I hope he will recognize Syria’s new government as well. Unfortunately, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu wants more war, not a stable northern neighbor, because he needs more war to stay in power and out of jail. Perhaps President Trump could have a quiet word with him on the matter.
Not just in Syria but around the world a transformation of a successful 4GW entity into a normal state is a development of great importance. I hope someone in Washington will understand that.