Walking the Plank
Around this time in every Presidential election year, those of us who write about politics have to walk the plank, i.e., we have to offer our predictions as to the election’s outcome. We may end up sinking in the ocean of wrong predictions, but that risk is one we have to take. So here goes:
I predict President Trump will win and win big. He will win not only in the Electoral College but in the popular vote as well. In doing so, he will carry almost all the swing states and some states considered solidly blue, i.e. safe for the Democrats. The Republican Party will take both the House, by an increased margin, and the Senate. The Democratic Party will suffer a general wipeout, one sever enough that the party starts to question its marriage to cultural Marxism.
What are my reasons for offering so rosy a picture? For the Presidential race, one of the oldest rules of politics: you can’t beat something with nothing. Kamala Harris is nothing. She stands for nothing, she has done nothing (not even running for office in a competitive rave), she can’t talk without a teleprompter. She is a cardboard cutout, spouting memorized lines like Chatty Kathy, a product of an army of image-makers, fact-twisters, and spin doctors. President Trump, in contrast, is the most real man in politics. The image of him pumping his fist and shouting “Fight!” after being show is indelible.
A second reason is a survey result that has received far less attention than it merits. Polls show that more Americans now self-identify as Republicans than as Democrats. This is the first time we have seen such a result in decades. It is meaningful for the Presidential contest, but it means even more for the Senatorial and House races. There, people know less about the candidates as individuals and so are more inclined to vote on a party basis. The shift is large enough to give the Republicans both the Senate and the House.
Third, the long-time basis of Democratic victories, overwhelming votes from blacks and Hispanics, is crumbling. The main reason is that blacks and Hispanics did very well economically under President Trump. Incomes rose more at lower levels than at middle and upper levels. In contrast, those incomes have fallen under President Biden (when adjusted for inflation). Blacks and Hispanics are not fools. They know which side their bread is buttered on.
Fourth, the October 14 Wall Street Journal reported that “Trump leads Harris among swing-state voters, 50% to 39%, on who is best able to handle Russia’s war in Ukraine and has a wider advantage, 48% to 33%, on who is better suited to handle the Israel-Hamas war.” While foreign policy issues usually play little or no role in elections, this year may be an exception. Voters are sick of overseas wars where we have no real interests at stake but which kill and maim our young people and pour billions or trillions of dollars away for nothing. They will continue to be bombarded with alarming headlines, especially from the Levant, between now and election day. President Trump is the peace candidate, while Harris is owned by the Blob, the foreign policy establishment that demands America rule the world. Most Americans want a republic, not an empire.
Last but most important is the elephant in the room: the Democratic Party is completely captive to cultural Marxism. Popularly known as “woke” or “political Correctness,” cultural Marxism denounces as inherently evil white people, men and non-feminist women, straights, Christians, and members of the middle class, Marxism’s loathed bourgeoisie. A large majority of voters fit in at least one of those categories. They are tired of being told they are horrible people who must spend their days groveling before cultural Marxism’s victim groups. They know that, in the privacy of the election booth, they can reject cultural Marxism by voting Republican. And they will.
This brings us full circle and in doing so answers the question of why most polls show a tie rather than a Republican sweep. Voters fear openly defying cultural Marxism and being labeled a racist or sexist or bigot. So Trump voters don’t answer the polls. That leaves them undercounted and the polls misleading.
And so I’ve walked the plank. We’ll see on election day whether I sink or swim.